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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.